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Content

• Introduction
• Significance of CTBT
• Why has India not signed the treaty yet?

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Introduction

• CTBT is a multilateral treaty by which states agree to ban all nuclear explosions in all environments, for military or civilian purposes.
  • Need: Between 1945 and 1996, over 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted – mainly by the US (over 1,000), Soviet Union (700) and France (200) – the treaty was brought to bring this to halt.
• The treaty was negotiated at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva and adopted by the UNGA in 1996. But the treaty has not entered into force yet, due to the non-ratification of the 8 specific nations.
• When would the treaty come in force?
  • The treaty would enter into force 180 days after the 44 states listed in Annex-2 of the treaty ratify it. These annex-2 states are those states which participated in the CTBT’s negotiation between 1994 and 1996 and possessed nuclear power reactors or research reactors at that time.
• As of Dec 2023, 9 annex-2 states have not ratified.
  • USA, China, Egypt, Iran and Israel have signed but not ratified.
    • Russia had signed and ratified but later withdrew ratification.
  • India, North Korea and Pakistan have not signed the treaty.
• Total 184 countries have signed the treaty (17 (including Russia) without ratification):

Significance of CTBT

• Prevents Nuclear Proliferation: CTBT is the last barrier on the way to develop nuclear weapons. It not only curbs the development of new weapons, but also prevents the improvement of existing designs. When in force, it will provide a legally binding prohibition on nuclear testing.
• Prevents environmental damage that occurs due to nuclear testing.
• It’s non-discriminatory as under this treaty everyone has the same obligation -> never to conduct nuclear explosion.

Russia withdraws from the ratification of the treaty. (Nov 2023)

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law revoking Russian ratification of the CTBT. Russia had ratified the agreement in 2000.

Why?

• Russia says the aim is to restore parity with the US, which has signed but has never ratified the 1996 treaty, and that it will not resume testing unless Washington does.

Why has India not signed the treaty yet?

• CTBT doesn’t deal with India’s stand of Complete disarmament in a time bound manner. It is just restricting the new tests.
• Discriminatory
  • For countries who already have large stockpiles of nuclear weapons, this is advantageous as it prevents others from getting it. For India, this pact will act as a hindrance in testing new technologies.
• Technology difference between P-5 countries and India
  • P-5 countries no more need to go for testing to enhance their stockpiles as they have developed laboratory stimulated testing mechanism which will not require nuclear explosions.
• India’s vulnerable neighborhood makes it mandatory for India to keep the option of future tests open. China already has a huge stockpile and as per CTBT (and NPT) it will be able to retain its arsenal but prevent India from developing more. This will give China an upper hand.

Conclusion

• India’s concerns are genuine and moreover the objectives of CTBT have been almost completely achieved (except in case of North Korea) by voluntary moratorium on tests by all the countries. India should keep striving for a more comprehensive agreement which calls for denuclearization of earth in phased manner rather than allowing some countries to remain with large arsenal and preventing others from getting the same.